From The Birmingham News (AL.com)
Poll says five on Birmingham City Council could lose
Watkins' VNN finds odds of re-election iffy; Miller's chances rated worst
Thursday, August 11, 2005
By Barnett Wright

Five of nine Birmingham City Council members are at risk of losing their jobs in the Oct. 11 election, according to a poll by the Voter News Network.

VNN is an independent political news group founded by Birmingham lawyer Donald Watkins. The group has endorsed candidates in the past and Watkins said the it plans to make contributions to candidates in the October election. VNN also backed Mayor Bernard Kincaid in the 2003 mayoral race and gave money to his campaign through PACs created by Watkins.

Joel Montgomery, Gwen Sykes, Elias Hendricks, Bert Miller and Roderick Royal are at risk of not being re-elected, according to the poll conducted in mid-July with a sample of 907 registered voters. A majority of respondents said they would vote for an alternative candidate.

Carol Reynolds, Valerie Abbott and Carole Smitherman appear to be safe in their districts, the poll shows. District 8 incumbent Lee Loder is not running for re-election.

"The attitudes toward the council as a whole is extremely negative and I think we will see significant change in the makeup of the council as indicated by these expressions of opinion," Watkins said.

Steven Haeberle, chairman of the department of government at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said many incumbents aren't safe until they establish themselves.

"If they are at risk, it's most likely to be at the end of their first term unless there is some sort of scandal way down the line," Haeberle said.

According to the poll, Miller in District 7 is most at risk with 77 percent of likely voters polled saying they would choose someone else. Forty-seven percent have a negative perception of the councilman, according to the poll.

An independent investigator hired by the city said in a report released last month that Miller deceived the City Council concerning a $25,000 grant for a jazz concert and workshop that did not happen. Mayor Bernard Kincaid turned the report over to the Jefferson County district attorney and the Alabama Ethics Commission.

"When I first ran I had 7 percent going into September and I won," Miller said Wednesday. "People are more intelligent than to believe what's going on on the TV and in the newspaper. I've done nothing wrong."

The survey matched the incumbents against likely challengers in each district.

Surprise for Bell:

Former City Councilman William Bell made a surprise showing in the survey with 40 percent of voters saying they would support him in District 5, while 28 percent said they would support Hendricks, the incumbent.

Bell said Wednesday he is pleased that the poll shows he has tremendous support in the community. He said the poll will make him more likely to announce a run for office in coming weeks and he will begin contacting leaders in the district to garner their support.

Hendricks said he hadn't seen the survey but the numbers seem inconceivable.

More than half of the voters polled, 61 percent, had a very favorable or somewhat favorable perception of Kincaid, who could seek his third term in 2007.

The survey was conducted for VNN by Jim Jager at New South Research, Birmingham. The interviews were conducted by telephone July 14-17. The statistical margin of error is 3 percent.


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