VNN POLL SHOWS 5 OF 9 BIRMINGHAM COUNCIL MEMBERS AT RISK IN OCTOBER ELECTIONS
By  Donald V. Watkins

Birmingham, AL, August 10, 2005 -- A Voter News Network Poll, conducted in mid-July, 2005, showed that 5 of 9 Birmingham, Alabama Council Members are at risk in their re-election bids.  Council Members Joel Montgomery, Gwen Sykes, Elias Hendricks, Bert Miller, and Roderick Royal are the 5 at risk Council Members.  Council Members Carol Reynolds, Valerie Abbott, and Carol Smitherman appear to be safe in their districts.  District 8 incumbent Lee Loder is not running for re-election.  However, April Williams appears to be favored by voters in District 8.

Former City Councilman William Bell made a surprise showing of support in the District 5 results.  If the election were held today, 40% would support William Bell, while 28% would support Hendricks, the incumbent.  No other candidate had higher than 10% support. 

District 7 incumbent Bert Miller is at the greatest risk, with 77% of the district’s voters saying they would choose an alternative candidate.  Furthermore, a significant 47% of the District voters have a negative perception of Miller.  The race in his District appears to be a “three-horse race” (not including Miller) and a toss-up. 

The poll asked voters to give a job performance rating (on a poor to excellent scale) for 15 selected representatives or groups.  Former Governor Don Siegelman was given an excellent rating by 14% (compared to no higher than 8% for any other person or group).  Seven representatives or groups received a fair/poor rating by over 50%:  Don Siegelman (51%), Gwen Sykes (54%), Governor Bob Riley (60%), Birmingham Mayor Bernard Kincaid, Bert Miller (both 62%), the Birmingham City Council (73%), and the Birmingham Water Works Board (81%).  Conversely, the lowest fair/poor ratings were received by Valerie Abbott (25%), Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley (28%), and Joel Montgomery (29%). 

Over half of the voters polled (61%) had a very (19%) or somewhat (42%) favorable perception of Mayor Kincaid.  Over a third (38%) had an unfavorable perception of him.  By race, Caucasians were more likely to give a poor rating to Mayor Kincaid, and to the Birmingham City Council and Water Works Board. 

The VNN Poll was based on a sample of 907 registered voters in the City of Birmingham who planned to vote in the October City Council Election.  The survey was conducted by Jim Jager, New South Research, Birmingham, Alabama.  The interviews were conducted by telephone, from July 14 – 17, 2005.  The statistical margin of error is ±3.3% at the 95% confidence interval. 

The complete 108 page VNN poll is available online on VNN’s website (HERE in Power Point format).

VNN will contribute financial support to each City Council Candidate endorsed jointly by Mayor Kincaid and former Mayor Richard Arrington, Jr., each of whom substantially aided VNN in designing its survey questionnaire. 


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